PS3 predicted to overtake Wii by 2013

PALGN News | No losers in this console war.

A “forecast scenario” developed by Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices has predicted that the PlayStation 3 will overtake the Wii and become the biggest selling console by 2013.

The forecast suggests that while the Wii will likely have almost 76 million consoles in use by the end of this year, it believes that the Wii is peaking in terms of sales and will lose momentum “after 2011”. In comparison, the forecast believes that the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 will continue to grow their install bases, and that new technology such as Microsoft’s Project Natal and Sony’s Arc and its plans for 3D gaming “also represent potential for upside to our core forecasts”.

The forecast predicts that overall sales of the PS3 will climb to 127 million units compared to the Wii's 103 million. For Sony, this result would only fall just short of the PlayStation 2's estimated 140 million units sold, and for Nintendo, this estimate would be almost five times the number of GameCube units sold.

For the year ahead, it predicts that overall console sales will drop by 9 per cent to 47.5 million because of falling sales of the Wii, while “sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360 are predicted to increase”.

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18 Comments

RichieT23

1 year ago

...the Wii will likely have almost 76 million consoles "in use".

The term "in use" should be considered very loosely! I know several people who's Wii's may as well be doorstops right now.

This prediction can't come soon enough IMO.

trixSTAR

1 year ago

Both the wii and PS3 are great consoles, no our wii doesn't get as much action as the ps3, but it does have some very fun party elements.

I am not fussed which console sells more (a wii HD soon would be nice), but thanks to Sony and Nintendo for bringing some great entertainment to the lounge room

JP2daMC

1 year ago

Good comment trixSTAR. No matter what console you have, the fact that they are all competitive is a very good thing for us, the consumers. Competition is always a good thing for better games, technology and better prices, and even fanboys and fangirls should appreciate that.

macca macca

1 year ago

Yeh..."in use" is a rough term. I've had my wii plugged in since release, but haven't turned it one for nearly 2 years....

Candescence

1 year ago

Yeeeaaaaahhh... Whoever believes this has been living under a rock since the beginning of 2007. They've been making these predictions since the start of the generation. None of them have been remotely close.

The only reason I haven't been playing my Wii lately is because the TV in that room is crap (seriously, it can't handle game consoles) and Mass Effect 2. I have Muramasa and The Conduit still waiting for playing.

thatavguy

1 year ago

I was kinda hoping new consoles would be out by 2012.... but then, i've made the move back to PC gaming.

renegadesx

1 year ago

Personally I called a Wii victory before the PS3 and Wii launched and got laughed at, people were telling me by 2010 the gimmick would have worn off. But even if sales peaked they can keep ahead.

When sales die down to the ride being over they will declare victory and release a HD model. (Sega did that before the SNES overtook the Mega Drive sales number too).

Main issue is they could sell the machine for $150 if they really wanted. $50 price cuts can keep the machine alive for a long time to see it possibly reach PS2 sales numbers.

Why do I make this call? Money does talk. There are people that want a Wii but can't justify the price (like $800 PS3).

A lot of PS2 owners bought it when it was dirt cheap. A chunk of the casual market can't justify $300 on a console let alone $500 on a PS3. No matter how you justify it, they won't buy it until its at a cost THEY think is reasonable not yours, or Nintendo's nor Sony's.

Analysts have a history of underestimating the casual market and how much disposable income many want to throw at games. Nintendo have been very smart with their pricing dragging it out long term when it needs it.

I think a price drop later this year will happen as sales start to drop later in the year to $250 or bundle with MotionPlus and Wii Sports Resort. Depends on how agressive they are and if sales considerbly drop.

emech

1 year ago

yep - agree with thatavguy - the next wii and xbox will be here by 2013.....or at least updated skus...

Cyph

1 year ago

I don't have a Wii so I can't comment directly on that, however, everyone I know who does have one ain't using it. My 360 has been gathering dust, much like those of others. But with each passing day, the PS3 is getting more and more use. I'm not sure how on the money this analyst will be, but from what I've seen, the trend seems to be going that way.

That said, Nintendo could slash the price on the Wii, sell another continent load and still profit from hardware sales

DancesInUnderwear

1 year ago

So Year of the PS3 has now been delayed until 2013?

I wish I could get hired as an analyst to randomly make stabs in the dark based on nothing, too.

jonnysuavo

1 year ago

Ah, DancesInUnderwear, you make me laugh!

That does sound like a cushy job.

Lord Haart

1 year ago

Interesting that they mention Xbox but give no figures. I'd have thought that it would be selling at least as much as the PS3. Possibly far far more once Natal is released.

Of course, if the debate is financial then I wonder what sort of losses MS and Sony are taking on each console. I don't really see why console sales matter at all except for profit; game quality is of far greater interest to me.

Jarrod

1 year ago

Analysts also predicted the Wii would tank, and they were so right on that one.

There will be a WiiHD by 2013 anyway, and by then it wont matter.

pom013

1 year ago

Analysts predictions... meh. If you punch in "2010 year of the X" (where X = wii, ps3 or 360), you can end up with three different answers as to which console maker will actually do the best in 2010. I think the real winners are gamers, when competition is this tight developers really get pushed to innovate.

renegadesx

1 year ago

EatChildren wrote

There will be a WiiHD by 2013 anyway, and by then it wont matter.

Michael Patcher is that you?

Island_Wolf

1 year ago

OMG, a drop means a drop further in the future while a rise in sales means it will be increasing further in the future...?

You know, all it take is Ninty to bring out something for the Wii to make people buy it and it will make this prediction rubbish...

Predictions... No trust for me until weather predictions is 100% perfect but then we will be breeding psychics that can read into our mind and stop us commit crime before it happens...

Jarrod

1 year ago

renegadesx wrote

EatChildren wrote

There will be a WiiHD by 2013 anyway, and by then it wont matter.

Michael Patcher is that you?

FFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUU-

Kurupt

1 year ago

The world is ending in 2012, and with the PS3 having a larger surface area, it'll be able to sustain billions more bacteria then the Wii ever could in 2013.

Maybe even... Trillions!

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